From The Home News Tribune, Sunday, March 2. Talk about “voting with your feet”:

JAMES W. HUGHES and JOSEPH J. SENECA

Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, often scrutinized obscure data sources for insightful clues on the state of the U.S. economy. Translating this approach to New Jersey, it is useful to look at household movement/shipment data provided by United Van Lines and Mayflower Transit in order to supplement formal interstate migration data as measured by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Census statistics show that the numbers of households and individuals leaving New Jersey for the rest of the United States have increased in recent years, although our total population continued to grow because of births and net immigration from abroad. Between 2000 and 2007, approximately 377,000 more people moved out of New Jersey to the rest of the country than moved into New Jersey from the rest of the country. We ranked fourth among the 50 states and the District of Columbia in net migration losses during this seven-year period.

Despite these losses, our total population growth, when also accounting for births, deaths, and international immigration, totaled 272,000 people between 2000 and 2007, although most of the growth accrued in the earlier years of this period.

Data from two moving companies provide “on the ground” snapshot certifications of the more comprehensive Census Bureau data. First is the annual interstate “migration study” of United Van Lines, the nation’s largest carrier. Its report tracks the states where its customers moved from and moved to. New Jersey was the third-ranking “high outbound” state in the survey. Of the total United Van Lines’ interstate movements that took place in New Jersey in 2007, 61 percent were outbound compared to 39 percent inbound.

The Garden State ranked third in outbound percentage behind economically challenged Michigan (67.8 percent outbound), which ranked No. 1. Michigan has been devastated by a collapsing industrial/automobile economy. We also trailed weather-challenged North Dakota (67.2 percent outbound). Second-ranking North Dakota has the lowest average annual temperature (42.2 degrees) in the lower 48 states. In contrast, New Jersey’s weather has been mild and free of extremes, and its economy had been growing modestly, yet the outflow continued apace.

Confirming this general pattern of high outbound movements from New Jersey is the 2007 Mayflower Transit Customer Relocation Study, a second set of household movement data. In 2007, Mayflower Transit found that 59.9 percent of its New Jersey moves were outbound, just below the 61 percent outbound share of United Van Lines. Thus, the two companies’ data on New Jersey migration are highly consistent not only with each other, but also with the Census Bureau migration estimates.

In addition, according to the United Van Lines study, North Carolina was the No. 1 “high inbound” state; 61.6 percent of its household goods movements were inbound, a reflection of its growing “demographic might.” In 2000, New Jersey’s resident population (8.4 million persons) was approximately 400,000 persons larger than North Carolina’s (8 million persons). By 2007, North Carolina’s resident population (9.1 million persons) was approximately 400,000 persons larger than New Jersey’s (8.7 million persons). This represents a swing of 800,000 people in the two states’ relative position in a brief seven-year period, a remarkable demographic shift.

In any case, the two moving companies have a good customer in New Jersey, although they have to keep shipping empty moving vans into the state in order to move New Jerseyans out. This is just the opposite of the growing stacks of empty cargo containers in the Port Newark area, where far more cargo containers with goods flow into New Jersey than flow out. Thus, our cargo movements have an interesting lack of symmetry with our household goods movements.

James W. Hughes is dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. Joseph J. Seneca is a university professor at the Bloustein School.