The psychology behind their thinking and mind-set is something that I am sure would be fascinating and telling. I just cannot figure out how most agents get sucked into the deceptive and illogical mentality? Maybe they really do serve kool-aid at those schools…and firms who hire newbies.

Your entries on this site are great, they provide real, unbiased points of view, and offer some levity at the same time - thank you, and keep up the good fight.

Thanks for the pump! You can certainly remain anonymous here, if you choose.

Agents, buyers, sellers: chime in here! What’s your opinion? Is it necessarily better or easier to mainline Kool-Aid than to look at things in the cold light of reality?

Buyers and sellers, do you feel that agents who are upbeat and constantly on the sell are better advocates for you? Do you want an agent who’s “always closing” 100% of the time?

Agents, do you think it’s potentially dangerous to only push a “sunshine” agenda with your clients? Do you think the possibility of blowback- in the form of a dissatisfied client, or even a lawsuit- is a built-in danger in taking this approach?

If you choose to remain anonymous, your privacy will be guarded here at all times.

Wow. You seem angry and kinda paranoid now. You’ve told me twice that you’ll give me the last word, but you keep coming back.  Great!  I enjoy a good fight, too.  BTW, the only e-mail you’d ever get from me is the one that automatically goes to anyone who posts here, thanking them for taking the time to do so.  The e-mail my autoresponder sent you bounced back.  Please be assured I don’t feel the need to harass people or violate their privacy.

Your previous statement, “…home buyers with the means to assume a fixed rate mortgage, which should ALWAYS be a prerequisite, are in an IDEAL position to buy right now”, is perfectly compatible with a statement I made earlier in this thread: “this market presents opportunity for a narrow group of buyers and sellers; I’m not advocating that nobody buy and nobody sell”.  If you’re a buyer with good credit, a real downpayment and a long horizon of expected occupancy, there are great opportunities out there.  In addition, a trade-up buyer gets the extra benefit of being able to take advantage of prices that are falling in unison across all price levels.

However, another statement of yours, “…prices have dropped significantly and now appear to have stabilized”, can only be- charitably- described as fantasy.  Where, locally, has this occurred? We’re coming off a Winter in which inventory levels remained high (GSMLS over 30,000 listings), and GSMLS may hit an all-time high by May.  Where are the numbers of sales that would back up your claim?  The January ‘08 version of the Otteau Report (the NJ “bible” of real estate) advises sellers to do the following:

“Best-Practice for a weakening housing market is to price ‘ahead of the decline curve’ to shorten marketing time and capture a higher selling price before prices drift even lower.”

For argument’s sake, if we were to go with your assumption that prices have stabilized, they’re probably about to fall out of bed again…and keep dropping.  Every real estate boom since WWII has been followed by a drop of equal magnitude.  Let’s say that local prices went up 100% between 2001-06; that means they need to drop about 50% to find equilibrium (i.e., a 200K house in 2001 rises to a value of 400K by 2006, then drops 50% back down to 200K in the down leg of the cycle).  Locally, we’ve only sliced about 15-20% off the recent highs, depending on housing type and location; that leaves us another 30-35% to go.  Sound crazy?  Well, Merrill Lynch stated last week that they see prices dropping 15% in 2008 and another 10% in 2009.  Goldman Sachs and Bill Gross, of PIMCO Funds, are also on the record as seeing further significant price drops over the next 12-24 months.

There are no longer ninja/toxic mortgages available to provide today’s buyers with temporary and artificial leverage to purchase at today’s still-elevated prices.  There are also not many buyers today with significant savings to use as a downpayment (and the few potential buyers who do are notoriously waiting for prices to drop lower before acting).  Many potential buyers have begun to choose to leave NJ entirely rather than go eyeball-deep into hock to buy barely-adequate housing that carries the highest real estate taxes in the US.  We’re losing population so rapidly that the state will probably lose a Congressional seat (that’s not my opinion…that’s from State Senator Kip Bateman).  So, again I ask: where are all the buyers who are going to sustain prices at today’s levels?

Oh, but “interest rates are incredibly low” (again, your words)!  Well…weren’t interest rates low when prices started dropping in late 2005? And, since rates are even lower now, why aren’t they stimulating any significant upturn in sales?  A good friend of mine has the answer to that question, and he repeats it often: IT’S NOT ABOUT RATES, IT’S ABOUT SOLVENCY, on the part of both lenders and buyers.  The Fed has just slashed 125 bps off overnight rates, yet lenders keep raising their mortgage qualification standards.  What gives?  Could it be that LENDERS DON’T REALLY WANT TO LEND?

Well, duh!  Most lenders’ balance sheets have been completely shattered by massive defaults and writedowns.  Many of them now have woefully-inadequate capital reserves.  They’re going to take any opportunity available to hoard cash and begin to repair those balance sheets, and it can’t be done without restricting lending.  Besides, at this point, most lenders are so skittish and skeptical about the quality of their borrowers’ collateral that they don’t even want to lend each other money overnight (hence, the credit crisis last August that prompted the Fed’s opening of the discount window and initiation of its term auction facility).  A history buff might draw some interesting parallels between recent Fed/Treasury actions and the actions they took at the beginning of our last deflationary credit crisis, the Depression.  I won’t go there, though gold sitting at over $900 an ounce makes me stop and wonder just what the heck is happening.

Since you provide no details on my alleged former clients you helped out of a pickle with their exploding ARM, I cannot confirm or rebut.  If you could provide a sliver of information, I might be able to figure out who it is.  I try to keep up with my old clients, and I can’t figure out to whom you’re referring.  Your story sounds a little too convenient in its current form.

Thanks for coming back by, TMac.  Sorry you don’t like my tone, but blogs that don’t take a provocative stand aren’t very fun to read.  If you come back, please don’t feel compelled to announce each post as your last.  It makes you look desperate when you return yet again.

Perhaps you can explain when is a good time to buy? When the rates are over 8%? When home prices are shooting through the roof? Perhaps, like a couple I just bailed out of their home as their ARM just killed them (BTW, they bought the home with you as their agent).

Home buyers with the means to assume a fixed rate mortgage, which should ALWAYS be a prerequisite, are in an IDEAL position to buy right now. Prices have dropped significantly and now appear to have stabilized and interest rates are incredibly low. So, I ask you, Mr. Knower of All Things Righteous, why is it NOT a good time to buy?

Is that real estate related enough for you?

And I left an altered email because I don’t need you to email me or harrass me which your previous post has demonstrated you attempted to do. See, some of can see ahead and don’t rely on 20-20 hindsight.

You can answer, and I will allow you the last word. You win the race. And to the victor go the spoils.

Thanks for your pity. I’d thank you in person, but you left a bogus e-mail address. Why the reticence in identifying yourself? Believe me, I’ve stirred up a lot more than the three or four people who may have posted here. You might also be surprised to know there are a lot more people- in and out of the profession- who agree with me than don’t.

I figured your next post would be your last, as you appear incapable of discussing actual real estate issues.

Mother always told me that having discussions or arguments with some people is like winning the Special Olympics. You may finally win, but you’re still handicapped.

I’ll head my mother’s advice and leave you to your own little world. Stirring up the voice of three or four people seems to have made you a celebrity in your own mind. I’ll leave you with this. When I lay myself down to bed at night, at least I’m not sleeping with Chip Hughes. You are! And for that, I do feel sorry for you.

“However, the issue that I have with you is that you do not seem to be joking and that your attacks on someone that differs with your opinion are more than just “invective and humor,” they are insulting and border on libel.”

TMac…those comments were meant to insult. Any agent who is out there right now parroting NAR’s party line and sounding the “all clear” signal and telling everyone “it’s a great time to buy” is doing far more damage than I could with a lifetime of insults. NAR’s new ad campaign emphasizes that houses, on average, double in value every ten years; that’d be great, except for the little fact that ANY investment that barely tracks inflation does the same. Telling a first-time buyer to get into this market right now is like a stockbroker telling someone to buy Enron as it was collapsing and justifying it by telling the buyer to consider Enron’s past stellar performance (lots of stockbrokers did this, by the way).

This market presents opportunity for a narrow group of buyers and sellers; I’m not advocating that nobody buy and nobody sell. But, given the narrow nature of current opportunities, it’s not an environment for for the first-time buyer, the financially-inexperienced or someone who may have a short expected window of occupancy. There is growing evidence that prices will fall further and credit markets will continue to tighten.

Libel? Again, I’d direct you to about 10,000 blogs out there. Clearly outlandish statements- intended as hyperbole- cannot be prosecuted as libel.

As far as my “holier than thou”, “pompous” position, excuse me for having a strong, reasoned opinion. Perhaps I’d be easier to rebut if all I did were hurl insults without substantiation. If I take the time to write something here, it’s going to have some pop behind it. Sorry if you or your friends are caught in the crossfire. I’m still perplexed by the ruckus that this single blogger has caused. Is the concern over my misguided sense of humor…or is it that I’ve called someone out for promulgating a self-serving and potentially destructive message? The personal reference- and my insult- have been removed from this blog (don’t ever want to hurt anyone’s feelings now, do we?), yet that doesn’t seem to be enough. I’ve got a feeling that there are a few folks out there who would like to see me silenced.

Lastly, to your comment: “why aren’t you on the front lines championing the cause of the poor lemmings following the “happy sunshine” crew”, all I can say is…I am. My agents and I have worked on a number of short sales in the past few months, and there are more in the pipeline. I speak to any number of people now who are on the edge of bad times, and I’m happy to offer whatever help I can, free of obligation or charge. If you know anything about doing short sales, you’d know I’m “walking the walk”, as 50% of proposed short sales fall through and the properties go to foreclosure. I’m not doing it because of the windfall profits that could be made. In addition, if I see an opportunity for mitigation or a mortgage recast for someone in trouble, I’ll counsel them to go that route, rather than just taking the listing and attempting to sell it short.

So, how well are you walking your walk?

I do not dispute the fact that there are many homeowners that are on the verge of being homelosers. In part to their own greed and shortsightedness and in part for not being completely informed by their lender and/or their Realtor.

However, the issue that I have with you is that you do not seem to be joking and that your attacks on someone that differs with your opinion are more than just “invective and humor,” they are insulting and border on libel.

The tone of most of your other posts are quite pompous. You assume a holier than thou position and chastize everyone and everything.If YOU have all the answers, why aren’t you on the front lines championing the cause of the poor lemmings following the “happy sunshine” crew instead of sitting behind your computer screen taking pot shots at those that have done more good in the community than you will allow them credit for?

You’ve talked the talk, let’s see YOU walk the walk!